Strait of Hormuz : How high can it go?

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East in early March 2026, marked by direct strikes on airport infrastructure and oil tankers in the Gulf, sent immediate shockwaves through energy markets. The potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil consumption passes, poses a threat of shortages to the global economy.

Since the start of the offensive on February 28, the price of Brent crude has already surpassed $120 a barrel, and pump prices in Europe have jumped by 15 to 20 cents in just one week.

How high can prices go?

Europe is particularly vulnerable because it still relies heavily on maritime imports.

If the conflict drags on without a complete blockade of the Strait of Gibraltar, gasoline could stabilize between €2.30 and €2.50 per liter.

In the event of a prolonged closure of the Persian Gulf, IEA (International Energy Agency) experts fear a surge to €3.00 per liter. At that point, rationing measures or emergency tax cuts would be unavoidable to prevent economic collapse.

Around the World
While less dependent on shale oil thanks to its shale oil reserves, the United States would still be affected by the global price increase.

The average price per gallon could rise from $3.50 to over $6.00 (approximately €1.50/liter), a critical threshold for American consumption.

Asia (China, India): These countries are the leading importers of Iranian and Saudi oil. A supply disruption would force them to draw on their strategic reserves, but a surge in the price of oil above $150 per barrel would significantly hinder their industrial growth.